America Destroys Its Advantage
April 29, 2025
For decades American Universities have been the envy of the World. With the brightest minds and the best facilities, these globally recognized institutions acted as a magnet for talent everywhere.
Now that I’ve been an investor for over 5 years, it’s probably time to accept my fate and begin sharing annual predictions, inevitably demonstrating that my crystal ball is just as broken as everyone else’s.
Here’s what I expect in 2023:
What: I predict the Nasdaq Composite will be down in 2023.
Why: Even though the tech index will be down ~30% this year, I don’t see the negative trends around inflation and geopolitical tensions improving at present. Until they do, I think we have more macro pain to endure.
What: There will be less than 100 IPOs on the US Stock Market in 2023.
Why: 2022 saw less than 200 IPOs, down over 80% from 2021, which breached 1,000. Given a downward trend in the stock market, I suspect we will see an IPO year similar to 2008 or 2009.
What: US Unemployment will be above 4% at the end of 2023.
Why: We’re currently at 50-year lows for unemployment, 3.7%, but I expect labor demand to soften and the talent market to inflate as layoffs continue into 2023, especially in the tech sector.
What: Startup funding will be down in 2023.
Why: Startup funding peaked in 2021, and although it has been trending down in 2022, the first 3 quarters still saw more than $185B deployed! I think startups should expect a lot less capital to be available in 2023.
Those are my predictions. Let me know what you think, and please share your predictions for 2023.
Happy Holidays!
